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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations ALPEN Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 20–45 min | 10-20 min daily |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations |
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