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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 15-45 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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