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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 15-45 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |
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