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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
2-4 h60-120 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
GrowthRetentionConversion
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test