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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of MVP Test Matrix with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
MVP Test Matrix
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
2-4 h45-60 min45-75 min
Participantsdifferent
3-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingTest Matrix, Test Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas