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Criterion
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min10-30 min je Item45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-81-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
GrowthRetentionConversion
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test