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| Criterion |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | RiskRoot causeSafety | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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