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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-4 h or multiple rounds10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
2-84-12 Experten1-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
EstimationExpertsForecasting
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation