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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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