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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
