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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 15-45 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
