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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min1-4 Wochen1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
2-86-30 Experten4-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of the Force Field Analysis working structure.
Decision Making
Force Field Analysis
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree