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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min30-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
DecisionTreeOptions
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree