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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min20-45 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-102-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key EventsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of System Archetypes with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
System Archetypes
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing