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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Knowledge Mapping.
Knowledge Modeling
Knowledge Mapping
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-83-12
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanKnowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
KnowledgeMappingRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Concept Map with concepts and labelled links
Knowledge Modeling
Concept Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree