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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test