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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-60 min20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-5
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test