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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-60 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas