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Criterion
Design Thinking as a learning loop: an observation notebook, a focused problem statement, different idea sketches, a cardboard prototype and user-test notes. Feedback leads to new understanding.
Innovation
Design Thinking
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLow
Timedifferent
1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
4-106-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Problem Statement, Prototype, Test LearningsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
InnovationPrototypeResearch
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Strategy Canvas with several value curves
Business Strategy
Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas
Paper illustration of a Business Model Canvas with nine connected compartments, a few notes and symbols for customers, delivery and economic relationships.
Business Strategy
Business Model Canvas