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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | RationaleKnowledgeDecision |
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