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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenHalf day45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesValue Chain Map, Lever ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of VRIO Framework with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
VRIO Framework
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping