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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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