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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Theory of Change |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Theory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome Measures | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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