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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-5 Tage20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 ExpertenNutzertraffic1-5
Formatdifferent
AsyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB