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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |
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