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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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