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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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