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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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