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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-2 Wochen pro Iteration1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-6Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results ReportClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas