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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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