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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Weekly Review.
Operations
Weekly Review
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In a week with many open loops, the method creates distance from operational noise. It organizes commitments, calendar, and projects so the next week becomes workable.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen20–45 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 ExpertenSmall cross-functional group1
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logUpdated Task System, Weekly Focus, Next Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ProductivityExecutionPlanning
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Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper scorecard with four perspectives, connected objective cards and columns for measures, targets and initiatives.
Business Strategy
Balanced Scorecard