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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |
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