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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |
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