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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
