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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | DecisionTreeOptions |
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