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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Option Framing.
Decision Making
Option Framing
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In early decisions, alternatives are often still vague, incomplete, or blended together. Option Framing brings every possibility into a comparable form and makes visible which variant actually fits the question.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen45-120 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesOption Frames, Assumption Notes, Comparable Shortlist, Decision InputsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
OptionsDecision framingStrategyComparison
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis