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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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