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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-75 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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