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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |
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