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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |
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