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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth Growth Experiment |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When growth ideas surface quickly, the temptation to build immediately instead of learning is high. A Growth Experiment frames an assumption so target group, lever, and measurement are clear before the first deployment. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Experiment card, Result summary, Next bet | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MarketingGrowthExperimentsLearning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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