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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Facilitation Alignment Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When several people work toward one goal but hold different mental maps, Alignment Mapping makes the discrepancies visible. It arranges goals, assumptions, and priorities so shared direction becomes verifiable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Alignment Map, Open Issues, Decision Questions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AlignmentStakeholdersStrategyFacilitation |
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