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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ChangeDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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