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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling Event Modeling |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Event Modeling connects business workflows with commands, events, and views into one coherent mental model. It helps design behavior, UI, and technical slices from the same underlying logic. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Model, UI Flow, Commands, Read Models | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EventsBlueprintDomain-Driven DesignBehavior | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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