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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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