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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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