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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionTreeOptions | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |
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