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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-6 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process