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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Decision Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | DecisionTreeOptions |
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