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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Bucket System |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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